The University of Washington Climate Impacts Group has built a new visualization tool for the state climatologist, which makes it easier than before to explore the whole climate record for Washington and some data for neighboring US states. The data itself is nothing new, but being able to explore it can help to get a handle on what’s going on. I rather arbitrarily picked my life to date as the range to compare, and got the sobering result that every single monitoring station has registered an increase in temperature since I was born; most statistically significant.
Of course, there’s no scientific basis for picking that particular range, but I wasn’t cherry-picking either (I’d have picked 1985-2015 if that were my goal). I just wanted dates that felt personally meaningful, and even as someone who considers myself relatively well-informed about climate change the sheer scale of the trend was breathtaking.
As a child, I adored the National Geographic magazines. I collected them for long enough to fill a bookshelf, and I think it’s fair to say that they had a pretty big influence on how I’ve ended up making a living. So it was particularly satisfying to see a project I’ve been involved with since the summer get a writeup in National Geographic:
Inside the daring plan to map every coral reef from space
It’s a wonderfully ambitious project—using imagery that wasn’t available 5 years ago—and terrifyingly urgent. Coral reefs are particularly sensitive to the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification, and massively important as both habitat and shoreline protection. We have very little time to left to figure out ways to make them more resilient, or lose a major source of protein and watch storms do more and more damage as the reefs’ protection is lost.
The project also lost two of its champions this year: Paul Allen and Ruth Gates. I wish I had had the chance to get to know Dr. Gates. Among other things, she set a great example of how to engage with work this sad and frightening and never be crushed by the weight of it. The project continues, and feels like a fitting memorial to both.
My role is to integrate the processed data we get from two different research groups: one infers depth from the satellite imagery, and the other classifies areas of reef by types of sea floor and what’s growing on them. I write automation that turns the depth data into false-colour imagery, and prepares everything to be displayed in the web map. Here’s a snapshot of that depth imagery:
So far we just have a single snapshot in time of 6 reefs, but the real challenge will be scaling that to all the reefs in the world, updated regularly. You can explore it yourself and read about the methods and partnership at http://allencoralatlas.org/ .
Because it’s a limited preview so far and most areas aren’t covered yet, panning and zooming around the globe isn’t very satisfying. I recommend clicking on the place names in the “Mapped Areas” list to see where we actually have data. And for a first look I prefer to turn all of the data layers off, zoom to a location, and then turn them back on one at a time starting from the bottom of the list.
A map I made just went live at arenewableamerica.org .
This was a relatively small project, but there are two things I’m particularly happy with. One is that it’s the first time I’ve hand-drawn boundaries with enough detail to actually publish – all the convoluted parts of the Grid Campaign layer that don’t correspond to state lines are hand drawn from a reference map:
The other is that it’s the first time in years I’ve been able to work on promoting renewable energy. After leaving a PhD program, my first work outside academia was an internship for a local renewable energy nonprofit, but since then I hadn’t found a way to contribute to this field until this little project showed up. It feels good to circle back to a cause I’ve never stopped caring about.
Last week I ranted about a poorly executed report claiming to show which properties around the US are at risk of climate change driven flooding. Peter Abrahamsen responded with:
Also, mean sea level, however it’s measured, doesn’t tell you who’s at risk of flooding.
and then pointed me at a couple of much better examples, most notably the Victoria, BC Capital Regional District’s climate change modeling project. I think it’s worth looking at all the other questions that would have to be answered to really get this right. Before diving in, I want to make clear that I’m not piling on Zillow any more: last week’s post was about flaws they should have figured out as a real estate data company, while most of what’s below will be details that they never claimed expertise in or took a position on. Continue reading “What would it take to predict climate change inundation well?”
Zillow recently published a report on how many houses are at risk from sea level rise around the US. It’s a good idea, but looking closely at where I live reveals some… issues in their analysis. Here’s a screenshot from the Seattle Times’ article with the local angle on the report:
If you know Seattle, you can probably spot the first problem. For those who don’t: the Eastern shore, and the cluster N of the word “Seattle” on that map are all lakefronts, separated from the sea by the rather large Ballard Locks. The local article’s been updated to mention that, but Zillow’s downloadable data hasn’t. And even the local article misses a detail: if sea levels were to rise by a foot more than the analysis assumed, the highest tides would still only be 4¾ inches over the lock gates—a problem for some houses for sure, but nothing like the 7 feet of flooding we’d have on our sea side, and much less than the amount the lake is already allowed to rise and fall by.
But there’s another problem, unrelated to quirks of Seattle’s Herculean engineering, and much more worrying for the reliability of this analysis. Continue reading “Blindly trusting data will leave you all at sea”